May 15 2023 | ‘Supercore Inflation’, the newest addition to the long list of Fed buzzwords, fell below expectations. Why it Matters: Although cooling, the rate of deceleration is showing signs of slowing down. This is concerning for markets expecting lower inflation. Source: thedailyshot
...May 15 2023 | The narrative has shifted from rate hikes to the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut. The average time between the last hike & the first-rate cut is approximately four (4) months. Why It Matters: Markets might be overly optimistic in their expectations for the timing of the first rate cut. Source: thedailyshot
...May 15 2023 | More evidence emerged this week indicating a further tightening of credit conditions. Why It Matters: We need to watch this… tighter credit conditions can have a widespread impact, affecting earnings, labor markets, and the overall economy. Source: thedailyshot
...May 1 2023 | A possible U.S. debt default looks like it’s now been pushed back to possibly July 2023. Why It Matters: Expect debt ceiling negotiations to dominate the financial headlines, potentially leading to increased market volatility in the coming months. Source: thedailyshot, Gavekal
...May 1 2023 | U.S. Gross Domestic Product came in lower than anticipated and investment is showing signs of slowing down. Why it matters: The impact of higher interest rates on investments cannot be ignored, and the Fed’s projected +0.25% interest rate rise next week will only add more fuel to the fire. Source: Gavekal
...May 1 2023 | The shares of First Republic Bank are under pressure this week.Why It Matters: Despite being out of the headlines, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is still being felt, with wider implications for investors. It’s important to monitor the situation. Source: thedailyshot
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