May 22 2023 | U.S. retail sales exceed predictions, as the consumer continues to spend. Why It Matters: The unexpected strength in consumer spending is encouraging. It suggests a potential for delaying the possibility of a recession. Source: thedailyshot
...May 15 2023 | Lawmakers are racing to find common ground and reach a compromise regarding the debt ceiling (the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury). Why It Matters: The potential ‘X’ date has been pushed to July, that gives the time where a U.S. default shouldn’t be an option. Source: The Economist
...May 15 2023 | ‘Supercore Inflation’, the newest addition to the long list of Fed buzzwords, fell below expectations. Why it Matters: Although cooling, the rate of deceleration is showing signs of slowing down. This is concerning for markets expecting lower inflation. Source: thedailyshot
...May 15 2023 | The narrative has shifted from rate hikes to the timing of the Fed’s first rate cut. The average time between the last hike & the first-rate cut is approximately four (4) months. Why It Matters: Markets might be overly optimistic in their expectations for the timing of the first rate cut. Source: thedailyshot
...May 15 2023 | More evidence emerged this week indicating a further tightening of credit conditions. Why It Matters: We need to watch this… tighter credit conditions can have a widespread impact, affecting earnings, labor markets, and the overall economy. Source: thedailyshot
...May 1 2023 | A possible U.S. debt default looks like it’s now been pushed back to possibly July 2023. Why It Matters: Expect debt ceiling negotiations to dominate the financial headlines, potentially leading to increased market volatility in the coming months. Source: thedailyshot, Gavekal
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