April 30, 2024 | A U.S. Tale of Two Cities: Large companies hoard cash while small ones face tough refinancing conditions.
Why It Matters: Expect a growing divergence in performance, with small companies struggling under higher rates and less cash vs. larger counterparts.
Source: dailychartbook
...April 30, 2024 | The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are diminishing, with markets now foreseeing only 1-2 cuts this year.
Why It Matters: The U.S. dollar has risen 5% this year and as we hold off on cuts, other countries are expected to continue reducing rates.
Source: SoberLook
...April 30, 2024 | Discover’s credit card charge-offs have steadily increased this year.
Why It Matters: While charge-offs are always concerning, the fact Discover’s clientele is largely lower-income Americans, suggests significant financial hardships are already underway.
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Markets pulled back some on news that U.S. inflation numbers exceeded expectations.
Why It Matters: Markets are hyper-attuned to Fed rate decisions . The combo of surging inflation and last week’s strong jobs data further dims the prospect of near-term rate cuts.
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Retail sales were below expectations this month.
Why It Matters: The consumer has been the economy’s workhorse. However, beyond this month’s figures, a concerning trend is emerging—a flatlining in spending. This could spell trouble for markets
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Chinese investors are divesting from overseas investments, notably in Commercial Real Estate (CRE).
Why It Matters: Forced sales could worsen the plight in CRE, where occupancy and rents are declining. It also poses risks to regional banks heavily exposed to CRE.
Source: SoberLook
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