April 30, 2024 | The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are diminishing, with markets now foreseeing only 1-2 cuts this year.
Why It Matters: The U.S. dollar has risen 5% this year and as we hold off on cuts, other countries are expected to continue reducing rates.
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Markets pulled back some on news that U.S. inflation numbers exceeded expectations.
Why It Matters: Markets are hyper-attuned to Fed rate decisions . The combo of surging inflation and last week’s strong jobs data further dims the prospect of near-term rate cuts.
Source: SoberLook
...January 22, 2024 | Smaller companies are more vulnerable to higher rates: 37% have floating rates or debt due this year and next, vs. 19% of larger firms.
Why It Matters: We should pay close attention, their performance could be a key indicator of market shifts and trends.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 22, 2024 | The inflow of dollars into market funds has been remarkable. Usually when rates drop, the money flows back out.
Why It Matters: If rates do come down as expected, this could signal a bullish trend as capital shifts “off the sidelines” and into markets.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 15, 2024 | Typically when rates are cut, earnings expectations are reduced by approximately ~20%.
Why It Matters: If we do see an accommodative Fed, it’s important to remember that rate cuts usually happen for a reason – often when companies are facing tougher times.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 15, 2024 | Markets are banking on rate cuts of -1.5% in 2024, with a ~70% chance starting in March according to the investment community.
Why It Matters: Markets are upbeat about the Fed playing nice with rates. If they don’t, it’ll be a wake-up call as markets adjust to a less friendly Fed.
Source: SoberLook
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