June 12 2023 | Markets have been hyper-focused on the slowdown in wage growth and its impact on demand. Why It Matters: While everyone’s attention is on wage growth, job growth is actually a better predictor of consumption. Job growth continues to be stronger than expected. Source: Gavekal
...April 10 2023 | ILabor markets are cooling off some, but slower than anticipated. Why it matters: Markets expect softer labor that can prompt Fed monetary policy change. While slowing, the current pace may not be fast enough. Source: thedailyshot
...February 6, 2023| Today’s job gains surpass previous expansions with ~24.6 million jobs created since April 2020, highlighting how red-hot the U.S. labor market still is. However, this presents a challenge for the Fed, as they are seeking evidence of a cooling market. Source: lenkiefer
...October 10, 2022 | The U.S. Jobs report showed signs of a looser labor market. The Fed wants lower inflation and labor markets are one of the key factors driving the Fed’s decision for continued aggressive monetary policy. Looser Labor Market = Lower Wage Gains = Lower Inflation Source: thedailyshot
...September 30, 2022 | Labor markets are a lagging indicator, tightening only after a recession has taken hold, providing confirmation of what was already believed. It’s important to find indicators that provide foresight into labor markets, and some of these indicators are flashing red. Source: thedailyshot
...August 26, 2022 | It is always easier to cut hours instead of jobs. The average workweek is a great indicator for labor market conditions and a continued drop in hours worked is not a good sign. This is a strong signal that labor markets are shifting. Source: @thedailyshot
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