January 8, 2024 | Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity cooled in 2023, down -6%, with the lowest capital invested since 2017.
Why It Matters: M&A trends are like a thermometer for economic health—too much activity can signal overheating, while too little may indicate a chill in the market air. We are currently on the cooler side.
Source: axious
...January 1, 2024 | Credit card delinquencies are on the rise, with an uptick in new 30+ day delinquencies.
Why It Matters: We’ve stressed the consumer’s critical role in a thriving economy. Signs of financial strain could spell trouble for economic stability.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 1, 2024 | Rates Take A Toll On Real Estate Too
Pending home sales plummeted to the lowest since tracking began.
Why It Matters: The housing market’s slowdown underscores the impact of higher interest rates. It’s critical to watch if a recent dip in mortgage rates can reignite home sales.
Source: Source Financial Advisor
...January 1, 2024 | Oil prices are easing off their long-term trends.
Why It Matters: Historically, lower energy costs is good news for the U.S. stock market. Lower energy prices = lower input costs. Which can translate to increased profits.
Source: Gavekal
...January 1, 2024 | This season’s ‘Santa Claus Rally’ marks the eighth straight, as markets bounced back after a tough 3rd Quarter 2023.
Why It Matters: The rally hinges on expectations of Fed rate cuts in 2024. This optimism is delicate; a shift in Fed policy could reverse markets.
Source: dailychartbook
...December 18, 2023 | Recreation Vehicle (RV) sales are nosediving, with recent drops surpassing those seen in prior recessions.
Why It Matters: As a discretionary big-ticket item, RVs can be economic canaries in the coal mine. A downturn may signal a broader economic slowdown.
Source: dailychartbook
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