May 28, 2024 | Companies are reporting higher profits, which typically leads to business spending.
Why It Matters: Increased business spending is crucial for growth. Although it has been subdued, a resurgence would signal a positive shift in economic conditions.
Source: SoberLook
...May 28, 2024 | U.S. imports from China have fallen in recent years.
Why It Matters: While Chinese imports decrease, those from Mexico and Vietnam rise, along with Chinese exports to these nations.
This shift suggests a re-alignment of trade routes, not reduced U.S. consumption.
Source: SoberLook
...May 28, 2024 | Recent Fed minutes show members are cautious about rate cuts amid strong employment and hotter inflation data.
Why It Matters: The expectation for rate cuts in 2024 are fading; markets now expect only 1-2 cuts.
The U.S. Dollar strengthened as investors brace for ‘higher for longer’ rates.
Source: SoberLook
...April 30, 2024 | U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in below expectations. Stronger imports were a major driver of the weaker GDP reading.
Why It Matters: While it may seem counterintuitive, increased imports negatively impact GDP, but can also indicate stronger consumer demand.
Source: SoberLook
...April 30, 2024 | A U.S. Tale of Two Cities: Large companies hoard cash while small ones face tough refinancing conditions.
Why It Matters: Expect a growing divergence in performance, with small companies struggling under higher rates and less cash vs. larger counterparts.
Source: dailychartbook
...April 30, 2024 | The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations are diminishing, with markets now foreseeing only 1-2 cuts this year.
Why It Matters: The U.S. dollar has risen 5% this year and as we hold off on cuts, other countries are expected to continue reducing rates.
Source: SoberLook
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