April 30, 2024 | Discover’s credit card charge-offs have steadily increased this year.
Why It Matters: While charge-offs are always concerning, the fact Discover’s clientele is largely lower-income Americans, suggests significant financial hardships are already underway.
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Markets pulled back some on news that U.S. inflation numbers exceeded expectations.
Why It Matters: Markets are hyper-attuned to Fed rate decisions . The combo of surging inflation and last week’s strong jobs data further dims the prospect of near-term rate cuts.
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Chinese investors are divesting from overseas investments, notably in Commercial Real Estate (CRE).
Why It Matters: Forced sales could worsen the plight in CRE, where occupancy and rents are declining. It also poses risks to regional banks heavily exposed to CRE.
Source: SoberLook
...February 19, 2024 | Small business optimism and hiring plans are both trending down.
Why It Matters: Small businesses employ nearly half the U.S. workforce. Their challenges – exacerbated by higher interest rates – are pivotal to the overall economic health.
Source: SoberLook
...January 22, 2024 | The inflow of dollars into market funds has been remarkable. Usually when rates drop, the money flows back out.
Why It Matters: If rates do come down as expected, this could signal a bullish trend as capital shifts “off the sidelines” and into markets.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 22, 2024 | The U.S. money supply, along with import and export prices, continues to decline.
Why It Matters: These trends could suggest the Fed may have won its battle against inflation.
Source: SoberLook, dailychartbook
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