August 14, 2023 | Oil prices are surging and drillers are ramping up supply.
Why It Matters: The U.S. is refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first in 12 months, and this could be boosting prices temporarily. If the U.S. shifts focus to cheaper oil, expect a change, especially with rising production.
Source: thedailyshot
...August 14, 2023 | Inflation is slowing down, echoing last month’s report.
Why It Matters: When annualized, inflation is at a +2% pace. As inflation cools, it should mean less pressure on the Fed to keep raising rates. This reaffirms that the recent rate hike may have been the last.
Source: Source Financial Advisors
...June 12 2023 | The ratio of stock to bond volatility has plunged to an almost 30 year low. Why It Matters: The stock and bond markets are projecting contrasting forecasts. The stock markets foresee stability ahead, while bond markets anticipate choppier seas. Source: thedailyshot
...June 12 2023 | U.S. trade deficits expand to levels unseen since October of 2022. Why It Matters: U.S. imports, often overlooked, are a great proxy for consumer demand. Increased Demand = Increased Imports. It’s encouraging to see a reversal in the previously declining data trend. Source: Source Financial Advisors
...June 12 2023 | Markets have been hyper-focused on the slowdown in wage growth and its impact on demand. Why It Matters: While everyone’s attention is on wage growth, job growth is actually a better predictor of consumption. Job growth continues to be stronger than expected. Source: Gavekal
...June 12 2023 | Three massive emerging market economies are in disinflationary mode: China, India, and Brazil. Why It Matters: A continuing slowing pace of inflation could be good news for stocks as they react more to changes in inflation rather than its actual level. Source: Gavekal
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