January 15, 2024 | Markets are banking on rate cuts of -1.5% in 2024, with a ~70% chance starting in March according to the investment community.
Why It Matters: Markets are upbeat about the Fed playing nice with rates. If they don’t, it’ll be a wake-up call as markets adjust to a less friendly Fed.
Source: SoberLook
...January 15, 2024 | The latest inflation report reveals a slight uptick above forecasts, suggesting inflation remains stickier than anticipated.
Why It Matters: Despite the upside surprise, markets remain optimistic about potential rate cuts in 2024.
Source: SoberLook, Source Financial Advisors
...January 8, 2024 | Growth stocks have outstripped value stocks by a significant margin in 2023.
Why It Matters: This underscores growth stocks’ robust performance, but don’t count out value stocks just yet; their resilience often shines in challenging times.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 8, 2024 | $117 billion in commercial mortgages for office spaces mature in 2024 amid falling values as a result from work-from-home activities.
Why It Matters: It’s not at crisis-level, but it’s sufficient to disrupt. All eyes will be how this is handled and refinanced.
Source: dailychartbook, Financial Times
...January 8, 2024 | Attacks on Suez Canal ships are unfortunately spiking shipping costs, and are re-routing ships around Africa.
Why It Matters: With approximately ~10% of trade affected and diversions, it’s adding up to +2 weeks to delivery times. A rapid solution is essential to avert a spike in oil prices.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 8, 2024 | Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity cooled in 2023, down -6%, with the lowest capital invested since 2017.
Why It Matters: M&A trends are like a thermometer for economic health—too much activity can signal overheating, while too little may indicate a chill in the market air. We are currently on the cooler side.
Source: axious
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