June 12 2023 | U.S. trade deficits expand to levels unseen since October of 2022. Why It Matters: U.S. imports, often overlooked, are a great proxy for consumer demand. Increased Demand = Increased Imports. It’s encouraging to see a reversal in the previously declining data trend. Source: Source Financial Advisors
...June 12 2023 | Markets have been hyper-focused on the slowdown in wage growth and its impact on demand. Why It Matters: While everyone’s attention is on wage growth, job growth is actually a better predictor of consumption. Job growth continues to be stronger than expected. Source: Gavekal
...June 12 2023 | Three massive emerging market economies are in disinflationary mode: China, India, and Brazil. Why It Matters: A continuing slowing pace of inflation could be good news for stocks as they react more to changes in inflation rather than its actual level. Source: Gavekal
...June 5 2023 | Credit default swaps on a potential U.S. default collapse as Republicans & Democrats come together to pass the debt ceiling. Why It Matters: This couldn’t have happened without bipartisan support. So, our government can actually compromise. Source: thedailyshot
...June 5 2023 | With the debt ceiling in the rearview, the U.S. Treasury needs to rebuild its cash levels. Why It Matters: U.S. Treasury’s cash spending added market liquidity. However, rebuilding its cash balance could have the opposite effect and may spike near-term volatility. Source: Gavekal
...June 5 2023 | The Fed’s inflation gauge just ticked ever-so-slightly higher. Why It Matters: Not the ideal scenario. We need inflation to keep trending downward. Otherwise, it’ll give the Fed reason to keep hiking rates. Source: Torsten Slok
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