January 15, 2024 | Typically when rates are cut, earnings expectations are reduced by approximately ~20%.
Why It Matters: If we do see an accommodative Fed, it’s important to remember that rate cuts usually happen for a reason – often when companies are facing tougher times.
Source: dailychartbook
...December 11, 2023 | Labor markets show contrasts: A dip in job openings hints at cooling, but strong job growth suggests resilience.
Why It Matters: The Fed’s back at square one, with this tug-of-war data only adding uncertainty on the future of rates.
Source: SoberLook, Source Financial Advisors
...June 12 2023 | Markets have been hyper-focused on the slowdown in wage growth and its impact on demand. Why It Matters: While everyone’s attention is on wage growth, job growth is actually a better predictor of consumption. Job growth continues to be stronger than expected. Source: Gavekal
...April 10 2023 | ILabor markets are cooling off some, but slower than anticipated. Why it matters: Markets expect softer labor that can prompt Fed monetary policy change. While slowing, the current pace may not be fast enough. Source: thedailyshot
...February 6, 2023| Today’s job gains surpass previous expansions with ~24.6 million jobs created since April 2020, highlighting how red-hot the U.S. labor market still is. However, this presents a challenge for the Fed, as they are seeking evidence of a cooling market. Source: lenkiefer
...October 10, 2022 | The U.S. Jobs report showed signs of a looser labor market. The Fed wants lower inflation and labor markets are one of the key factors driving the Fed’s decision for continued aggressive monetary policy. Looser Labor Market = Lower Wage Gains = Lower Inflation Source: thedailyshot
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