August 28, 2023 | The U.S. 30 year mortgage rate soars to 7.57%, the highest in 20+ years. Why It Matters: The spread between mortgage rates and long-term U.S. bonds suggests if rates surged too quickly. Signs now? The quick sprint could lead to an upcoming slowdown. Source: Source Financial Advisors
...June 12 2023 | The ratio of stock to bond volatility has plunged to an almost 30 year low. Why It Matters: The stock and bond markets are projecting contrasting forecasts. The stock markets foresee stability ahead, while bond markets anticipate choppier seas. Source: thedailyshot
...June 12 2023 | Markets have been hyper-focused on the slowdown in wage growth and its impact on demand. Why It Matters: While everyone’s attention is on wage growth, job growth is actually a better predictor of consumption. Job growth continues to be stronger than expected. Source: Gavekal
...June 12 2023 | Three massive emerging market economies are in disinflationary mode: China, India, and Brazil. Why It Matters: A continuing slowing pace of inflation could be good news for stocks as they react more to changes in inflation rather than its actual level. Source: Gavekal
...June 5 2023 | The Fed’s inflation gauge just ticked ever-so-slightly higher. Why It Matters: Not the ideal scenario. We need inflation to keep trending downward. Otherwise, it’ll give the Fed reason to keep hiking rates. Source: Torsten Slok
...June 5 2023 | Chinese manufacturing underperforms, falling short of expectations. Why It Matters: China being the 2023 wild card and pulling the global economy out of a slowdown with pent-up COVID spending seems increasingly less likely. Source: thedailyshot
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