January 22, 2024 | The U.S. money supply, along with import and export prices, continues to decline.
Why It Matters: These trends could suggest the Fed may have won its battle against inflation.
Source: SoberLook, dailychartbook
...January 22, 2024 | Chinese Gross Domestic Product growth slowed to +5.2%, the lowest since 1976 (excluding Covid). It also faces a housing crisis with prices falling in ~90% of cities.
Why It Matters: China’s issues can send global ripples impacting everything from supply chains to international investments.
Source: SoberLook
...January 15, 2024 | China overtook Japan to become the world’s largest exporter of cars.
Why It Matters: The shift not only highlights China’s dominant role, but also signals a reshaping of the automotive market, where the impact is likely to be felt first in the European Union.
Source: Gavekal
...January 15, 2024 | Typically when rates are cut, earnings expectations are reduced by approximately ~20%.
Why It Matters: If we do see an accommodative Fed, it’s important to remember that rate cuts usually happen for a reason – often when companies are facing tougher times.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 15, 2024 | Markets are banking on rate cuts of -1.5% in 2024, with a ~70% chance starting in March according to the investment community.
Why It Matters: Markets are upbeat about the Fed playing nice with rates. If they don’t, it’ll be a wake-up call as markets adjust to a less friendly Fed.
Source: SoberLook
...January 15, 2024 | The latest inflation report reveals a slight uptick above forecasts, suggesting inflation remains stickier than anticipated.
Why It Matters: Despite the upside surprise, markets remain optimistic about potential rate cuts in 2024.
Source: SoberLook, Source Financial Advisors
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