January 22, 2024 | Smaller companies are more vulnerable to higher rates: 37% have floating rates or debt due this year and next, vs. 19% of larger firms.
Why It Matters: We should pay close attention, their performance could be a key indicator of market shifts and trends.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 22, 2024 | The inflow of dollars into market funds has been remarkable. Usually when rates drop, the money flows back out.
Why It Matters: If rates do come down as expected, this could signal a bullish trend as capital shifts “off the sidelines” and into markets.
Source: dailychartbook
...January 22, 2024 | The U.S. money supply, along with import and export prices, continues to decline.
Why It Matters: These trends could suggest the Fed may have won its battle against inflation.
Source: SoberLook, dailychartbook
...January 22, 2024 | Chinese Gross Domestic Product growth slowed to +5.2%, the lowest since 1976 (excluding Covid). It also faces a housing crisis with prices falling in ~90% of cities.
Why It Matters: China’s issues can send global ripples impacting everything from supply chains to international investments.
Source: SoberLook
...January 15, 2024 | China overtook Japan to become the world’s largest exporter of cars.
Why It Matters: The shift not only highlights China’s dominant role, but also signals a reshaping of the automotive market, where the impact is likely to be felt first in the European Union.
Source: Gavekal
...January 15, 2024 | Typically when rates are cut, earnings expectations are reduced by approximately ~20%.
Why It Matters: If we do see an accommodative Fed, it’s important to remember that rate cuts usually happen for a reason – often when companies are facing tougher times.
Source: dailychartbook
...